If another comet was found today with similar orbital parameters, it could potentially be the comet of the century all over again.  the Oort cloud origin, the very close perihelion distance, the favorable viewing geometry, all were very big entries in the plus column.  The size was the big unknown.  I heard anywhere from 2 k to 3 miles.  That doesn't sound like much but it adds up to a factor of 15 between the lowest and highest possible volume and mass.  That's a huge unknown and today unknowable factor.  Also there is the unknown composition from dirty snowball to snowy dirtball.  This could also be stretched  from frosty dustbunny to frosty iron cannonball for maybe a factor of 100 or more.   With all these unknowns its no easy task to predict the outcome of a sun grazing Oort cloud member.  But that doesn't mean we should sneer at the efforts of the people who try to.  I much prefer to have overhype to underhype.   We can't leave the public with the notion that all comets are just big frauds.  We need to keep alive the hope, we need them to at least want to look at them.  Remember that today's young people have grown up on the internet.  They've seen hype all their lives and they are better at seeing through it without throwing a hissy fit.  The very reason that the print media indulges in hype today is that they are trying to address a younger audience than the people who were around during the 70's.  Newspapers and magazines are fighting for their lives and may go the way of the landline in the next decade.  I look forward to a sungrazing Oort cloud member by the name of "Comet Wiggins,  Comet of the Century".  The media would be camped out in his front yard like the O.J. Simpson trial.  And he would be loving every minute of it. DT From: Joe Bauman <josephmbauman@yahoo.com>

To: utah-astronomy@mailman.xmission.com Sent: Sunday, December 1, 2013 11:24 AM Subject: Re: [Utah-astronomy] Comet ISON

IIRC, When I criticized the cover 'way back I got a big lecture, the upshot of which was that they have to print long in advance. True. But still, they should have had better editorial judgement. All this hoopla about comets of the century is damaging to astronomical outreach.

------------------------------ On Sun, Dec 1, 2013 9:27 AM MST Bruce Hugo wrote:

...

I'm currently talking a vacation in Iowa at my dad's cabin.  Relaxing, doing some photography and catching up on some reading.  I pick up my S&T and Astronomy magazines with ISON on the covers and am reminded of the classic photo showing the  newpaper headline "Dewey Defeates Truman!"  Heheheheheeheeee!

Bruce

Equipped with his five senses, man explores the universe around him and calls the adventure Science.   - Edwin Powell Hubble _______________________________________________ Utah-Astronomy mailing list http://mailman.xmission.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/utah-astronomy

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