----- Forwarded message from aurorawarn@spacew.com ----- Date: Wed, 13 Dec 2006 06:45:51 +0000 (GMT) From: Mid or Low Latitude Aurora Warnings <aurorawarn@spacew.com> Subject: [Aurorawarn] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WARNING - 14-15 December 2006 MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING Updated: 06:15 UTC on 13 December 2006 Solar Terrestrial Dispatch www.spacew.com VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 14 DECEMBER VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) ON 15 DECEMBER HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14 DECEMBER (UTC DAYS) MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14 - 15 DECEMBER PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 70, 30, 15 (13 - 16 DECEMBER) POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS MINOR BELT = 12-24 HOURS ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO VERY GOOD AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR) NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO COLORADO TO KANSAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO TENNESSEE TO NORTH CAROLINA. ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR) FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO AUSTRIA TO SOUTHERN POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA. NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY. SYNOPSIS... A powerful and well-directed solar flare from active solar Region 930 was observed early on 13 December. This event has the potential to produce periods of moderate to strong (possibly even intense) auroral storm activity on 14 December, possibly lingering into 15 December. The most intense phase of activity is likely to occur some hours after the initial impact, which is currently expected near 07:00 UTC on 14 December (2 am EST on 14 December). The moon will begin to impinge on observations after it rises sometime after local midnight, so the best observations (if possible) will occur prior to and near local midnight when the moon is still below the horizon. This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (5 pm EST) on 15 December. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO: http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html ** End of Warning ** _______________________________________________ Aurorawarn mailing list Aurorawarn@spacew.com http://spacew.com/mailman/listinfo/aurorawarn