Happy New Year Y'all. I think that exoplanets are fascinating and should be explored and I think that a manned mission to Mars is not cost effective but I do think that Mars is fascinating. I have seen a lot of global surveyor pictures of Mars and noted that the terrain is varied and unique. Looking for life is not the only reason to explore other worlds or even the most important. Plus, Mars may well have bacterial life as Antarctica does. Sincerely, Gary Vardon see my website www.wealthbuilder.wwdb.biz use gary1234 as the id -----Original Message----- From: Joe Bauman Sent: Wednesday, January 2, 2008 12:43 PM To: Utah Astronomy Subject: Re: [Utah-astronomy] Happy New Year (belated) Yes indeed, Happy New Year to all our friends! My predictions about a crewed Mars expedition are: 1, it will happen pretty soon because we have discovered a cheap new transportation system; OR 2, it will never happen because robots are proving Mars isn't that interesting. Exoplanets with the possibility of advanced life are fascinating to me personally, while Mars is turning out to be about as interesting as the South Pole -- cold, incapable of much life, dreary landscape. Within far fewer years and with much less expense than a Mars expedition, advanced telescopes will actually image exosolar planets. Not much later, we will be able to analyze Earth-sized exoplanets to determine if carbon-water-oxygen based life exists there. When we round up a few of these promising exoplanets, attention will shift from actually going to a barren nearby planet to learning more about these distant worlds. Mars is often pictured as a stepping-stone to more advanced human exploration. But it's not worth a huge expenditure of resources for just a visit or two. If we come up with better transportation, which I think is fairly likely, a Mars run might be a good training exercise. When I was born in the middle-1940s, going to the moon was unthinkable. In another 20 years some system may be in place that would make an exoplanet visit possible. -- Just my 1.3 cents worth. jb On Jan 2, 2008, at 11:34 AM, Seth Jarvis wrote:
Happy New Year to you, too.
Thirty years before a crewed mission to Mars? That's as good as saying "Never." Too much changes in so long a period of time.
The stuff I'm reading says twenty years may be more realistic, yet there's still a real threat of the public losing interest because of the long lead time.
Assuming that the federal budget permits our nation the luxury of such a thing, then the way I'm predicting this will shake out goes along these lines:
2018 to about 2025 we spend on the Moon figuring out how to spend extended periods of time on the surface of another world. It turns out that while our technology in 1970 was adequate to spend a couple of days on the Moon, attempting to spend and entire week there would have been disastrous.
Meanwhile, we're sending more advanced robotic missions to explore Mars and have a go at a couple of sample return missions.
If the sample return missions indicate no potential for nasty biological interactions, either Earth-to-Mars or Mars-to-Earth, and we've figured out how to keep astronauts sane and productive on 30-month missions, and we're confident that we can not only place objects reliably into Martian orbits but also get large objects in Martian orbits safely back to Earth, then the thinking is that a crewed mission to Mars could leave Earth around 2025 - 2030.
Of course, we haven't got so much as a clue about what the national mood will be ten years from now, let alone in 25 years, nor can we accurately predict where funding for this adventure stacks-up against other national funding priorities.
And yes, Patrick should sign up.
Seth
-----Original Message----- From: utah-astronomy-bounces@mailman.xmission.com [mailto:utah-astronomy-bounces@mailman.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Kim Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2008 10:46 AM To: 'Utah Astronomy' Subject: [Utah-astronomy] Happy New Year (belated)
I just realized that I hadn't wished a Happy New Year to some of my best and oldest friends. ("Just who are you calling old?" - thought I should beat anyone to that line.) So, all the best for a good year. I hope you all keep improving...and enjoy clear (clearer) skies.
I rang in the new year by watching much of "Mars Rising" on the Discovery Channel - I think. For anyone who hasn't seen the program, I thought it was very well done. And you get to listen to William Shatner not being cheeky for a change. I hope that we get there in my life time. We should begin a pool for the landing date. If we start now and bank the money, it could be worth quite a bit by the time we launch. Anyway, the program suggested that a Mars mission might be 30 years out. I'm thinking much longer, in part because a 30-year occupation of Iraq now seems much more likely than a mission to Mars. Oops, there I go getting political. Sorry. So, does anyone have thoughts on a Mars mission, such as technology, timing, should Patrick volunteer, etc.?
Kim
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