Chuck, I can't help with any useful input, just some general comments. When it's blowing 25 knots, I adhere to the paraphrase of the old pilot's comment, which goes: "It's better to be on the ground, wishing you were in the air, than be in the air wishing you were on the ground." The sailor's version is: "It's better to be on the dock, wishing you were out sailing; than to be out sailing, wishing you were at the dock." Under those conditions, my thoughts would be a deep reef in the main, plus possibly a reef in the jib as well. But without being out in an M15 under those conditions to see how the boat reacts, it's difficult to make any meaningful comments. If you have to hang on to the tiller with both hands, you are over-canvased. By reducing sail, you also lighten your steering loads, which reduces the physical effort needed to sail the boat. This is goodness! i.e., the load on the tiller tells you when it is time to reef.
From lots of past experience I can only say, reef early and deep. Keep the boat sailing on it's feet: this lee rail under jazz is for people that insist on spilling their beer, or are looking for a spectacular photo of their boat. The boat doesn't like being sailed that way, and if you are honest - neither do you.
Remember, it is always easier to shake out a reef, than it is to put in a reef. If conditions aren't as bad as NOA predicted, you can alway shake out one reef and carry on from there. Connie ________________________________________________________________ GET INTERNET ACCESS FROM JUNO! Juno offers FREE or PREMIUM Internet access for less! Join Juno today! For your FREE software, visit: http://dl.www.juno.com/get/web/.