From: Dan Asimov <dasimov@earthlink.net>
I know, or think I know, Norbert Wiener coined the word cybernetics and wrote a book about it. [...]
Me too.
But [...] the dictionary definition of cybernetics:
<< : the science of communication and control theory that is concerned especially with the comparative study of automatic control systems (as the nervous system and brain and mechanical-electrical communication systems)
The hard results were and still are in control theory. I know Wiener's no slouch, I think what happened was people hoped to get traction by looking at feedback loops, loops controlling the parameters of loops, etc., in hierarchies... but didn't get anywhere. So it is cybernetics itself (not just this conference) that has kooks. For instance people who want to manage economies with feedback systems, without really getting that economies already are multilayered feedback systems attempting to "route around damage" as the saying goes. It's similar to how Complex Systems had some interesting results and then kooks. The funny thing is, hierarchical feedback systems are making a comeback with people like Jeff Hawkins, only it turns out every little piece of knowledge is its own feedback loop, so (assuming they work) you don't get general high-level results, just general infrastructure designs and lots of specific stuff for a system to learn. --Steve
I think that this entire area has been subsumed by fractals, basins of attraction, etc. Most of the folks in economics aren't aware of how chaotic complex systems can become, and they naively continue thinking that these systems can be "controlled"/"regulated". If we would only "regulate" the economy, we could somehow avoid the chaos. I think that there is a Goedel-type argument lurking here: any sufficiently complex system _cannot_ be controlled from within the system. Perhaps this can be firmed up with a diagonalization argument -- sufficiently complex system would be doing, among other things, simulating approximations to itself in its vain attempts at regulation. Either there's an outright contradiction, or at least some form of slowdown argument: the time and/or space to do the computations required for such control don't allow the system to be controlled in real-time. I'm not suggesting that the govt shouldn't attempt a "systemic regulator", but only that no one should put much faith in its efficacy. At 02:30 PM 2/3/2010, Steve Witham wrote:
From: Dan Asimov <dasimov@earthlink.net>
I know, or think I know, Norbert Wiener coined the word cybernetics and wrote a book about it. [...]
Me too.
But [...] the dictionary definition of cybernetics:
<< : the science of communication and control theory that is concerned especially with the comparative study of automatic control systems (as the nervous system and brain and mechanical-electrical communication systems)
The hard results were and still are in control theory. I know Wiener's no slouch, I think what happened was people hoped to get traction by looking at feedback loops, loops controlling the parameters of loops, etc., in hierarchies... but didn't get anywhere. So it is cybernetics itself (not just this conference) that has kooks.
For instance people who want to manage economies with feedback systems, without really getting that economies already are multilayered feedback systems attempting to "route around damage" as the saying goes.
It's similar to how Complex Systems had some interesting results and then kooks.
The funny thing is, hierarchical feedback systems are making a comeback with people like Jeff Hawkins, only it turns out every little piece of knowledge is its own feedback loop, so (assuming they work) you don't get general high-level results, just general infrastructure designs and lots of specific stuff for a system to learn.
--Steve
* Steve Witham <sw@tiac.net> [Feb 04. 2010 10:24]:
[...]
For instance people who want to manage economies with feedback systems, without really getting that economies already are multilayered feedback systems attempting to "route around damage" as the saying goes.
[...]
A little horror story fits here: After I finished my Diplom (physics, analysis of certain chaotic systems) I got the offer for an approx 4 week job (very nicely paid). Offer was from a "scientist" in economy. <not_kidding_here> Task: Find all papers that have [plots of] solutions of all [sic] nonlinear differential equations, so I [economist] can compare [visually] to plots of economic data thereby identifying [oh, yes] underlying dynamics [and publish lotsa cool papers]. </not_kidding_here> Gave that guy a 60 minutes explanation that this is wrong, doomed, junk-science, insane, *OMG*; neatly detailing why. Only question he had then was: "Do you know someone else who'd do this for me?" Guy had a Doctor [economy] from a German uni (he may have been a professor, I do not recall).
participants (3)
-
Henry Baker -
Joerg Arndt -
Steve Witham