You're right, there can be no precise definition of probability for real-world events. But in practice this means that among situations on record having approximately the same parameters as the current one, about 30% of them have resulted in (greater-than-threshold) rain (during the period in question). —Dan ----- On Mon, Jun 15, 2020 at 4:48 PM Brent Meeker via math-fun < math-fun@mailman.xmission.com> wrote:
The ambiguity that most often bothers me is announcements of the form, "Thirty per cent chance of rain today." I know rain is defined as a measure greater than 0.1" But what does the 30% mean? Does it mean there will be at least 0.1" of rain on 30% of the people within range of the radio station? Or does it mean that if you hear this a hundred times, all the people in range will experience rain 30 times?