10 Feb
2012
10 Feb
'12
11:13 a.m.
Say I have two randomly chosen worldwide tennis players X and Y. Let's say X defeats Y twice in two matches. What is the chance X will defeat Y in a third match, if no other information is provided?
from a statistical "maximum likelihood estimation" point of view, the best guess is P=0. but this obviously underestimates the true chance. i would estimate that if you picked two tennis players at random from the population of people who call themselves tennis players, that the true P is closer to 5%. erich, a tennis player