My favorite probability paradox is intransitive dice.
In one of its simplest forms, three 6-sided dice A, B, C with A beating B, B beating C, and C beating A — each more than half the time. E.g.,
A: 2, 2, 4, 4, 9, 9
B: 1, 1, 6, 6, 8, 8
C: 3, 3, 5, 5, 7, 7.
where the common probability of A>B, or of B>C, or of C>A, is 5/9.
—Dan
>From: Cris Moore <moore(a)santafe.edu>
>Is there a good source for intro-level probability “paradoxes” that would give me an opportunity to pit cognitive biases against mathematical level-headedness? I have in mind things suitable for e.g. 6th-graders, things like: “I flip 8 coins. Which is more likely, that they come up HTTHHTTT or HHHHHHHH?”