I was afraid of this, but staying positive March, April, May can surprise.
On 01/15/2021 9:39 AM Dave Shearer <harbormaster@gslmarina.com> wrote:
Last year was not a good year for many reasons. COVID-19, Confinement, face masks, earthquake, a great winter followed by a disastrous spring – water wise. Well, 2021, as far as precipitation, seems to be much worse. Our snowpack today is 60%. The water year starts October 1st. Below are the stats since the water year began:
October – 18% of normal precipitation
November – 49% of normal precipitation . . . that was in one storm.
December – 28% of normal precipitation
January – 1% of normal precipitation. Let me state that again - - - 1% of normal.
The Great Salt Lake runoff can afford to lose October and November and still recover. According to water watchers, we can’t afford to lose December and January. Well we just did . . . and in a catastrophic way.
The lake usually comes up 0.13’ in November. It normally comes up 0.21’ in December. And it usually comes up 0.2’ in January. We have only come up 0.1’ since the low in October. That means we have already lost a potential of nearly ½ foot. On average we come up 2 feet during spring runoff and drop 2 feet during summer evaporation. In other words we come up and lose the same amount of lake level between spring and summer. Last year we had a net loss of 1.5 feet.
NWS long-term forecast states the Great Salt Lake Drainage area has an equal chance of being wet or dry . . . they don’t know. But almost every storm is going way over the top of us.
The hard truth is that we would have to have a miraculous 1983 spring to pull us out of the situation we are in now. The lake, rather than coming up, is stabilized at 4192.3’ MSL. We are in serious trouble.
I’m afraid we are looking at pulling most, if not all, of the boats this Spring, while the water is high enough to do so. It is time to start working on trailers. Working on cradles. Preparing to pull boats if we are faced with this real possibility. Right now, the target to start pulling boats is mid-March to mid-April.
I am so sorry for this hard news. I just don’t have much hope that we will see the miracle of 1983. I was at Jordanelle yesterday. There is no snow up there. I have heard from Rangers patrolling the back country. They report that, what snow is up there, is very dry. It contains very little moisture.
We are in serious trouble and need to plan accordingly.
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