HB Arnett’s
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West 800 South –
Vol. 33,
Issue 40 – July 9, 2013
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Divide By 3 and You Will Be Less
Disappointed
In my 30 plus years in entrepreneurial endeavors catered to all things
Cougar, I have learned a valuable lesson. Take your Pro Forma and projections
for revenue and divide them by 3 and you will be more accurate but less
affluent than you thought you would be.
I’m a guy who has dabbled in weekly newsletters (Cougar Sportsline),
cooperative sales of travel trailers to qualify for satellite reception of Salt
Lake City local television stations, Slingbox sales around the world (LDS
mission presidents were my best customers), and daily Cougar sports news
updates (Cougar Clicks).
I have also sold recruiting DVDs and VHS tapes. In all those endeavors, the divide by 3 rule has
kept me sane and solvent.
Of course there is always an exception to every rule. In 1993, I
underestimated the consumer power of Notre Dame Football fans. In those days
you could get BYU end zone season tickets for $36.
I bought 150 thinking I might eke out a few bucks by selling the ND vs.
BYU ticket for a premium price. I should have bought 15,000 season tickets. I
put a small ad in a Notre Dame booster magazine and was floored by the response
and how much Irish fans were willing to pay to see their team play in
If being Bishop of my LDS Ward was a political contest, I could have
been elected in a write in landslide. Once I sold the Notre Dame tickets I gave
away hundreds of UTEP,
In my heart, BYU is my favorite football team. In my wallet, I still
worship Notre Dame.
Enough of my entrepreneurial history, let’s talk the present
excitement currently surrounding BYU football.
If you divide and cut the euphoria and effervescene bubbling around BYU
football by 3, as Cougar fans, we are less likely to be disappointed this
coming season.
What can’t be divided by 3 is the calendar. Bronco Mendenhall and
his team are just 26 days away from the start of fall camp.
With all of my pontificating and prognosticating, it might be time for
proof that occasionally I may know what I am talking about.
I wrote this in the newsletter less than a year ago on August 6, 2012.
You Won’t
Like November
If you are reading this newsletter,
the demographics of Cougar Sportsline
indicate that the chances are about 95 percent that you are a BYU football fan,
will vote for Mitt Romney and know who Jabari Parker is.
Brace yourself. You aren’t
going to like November.
Come November, BYU should already
have at least 4 losses and be out of any BCS consideration. Mitt Romney
won’t be President of the
That’s a tough triumvirate to
swallow.
If you are keeping score, The Romney’s are now living in
In my opinion, here are 3 good reasons to divide your expectations of
BYU football this coming season by 3. You will be a lot happier with the
results.
Let’s start with Numero Uno.
That would be Bronco Mendenhall.
Despite a softer presentation of the public persona of Mendenhall and
his own Twitter account, he is still Mendenhall. He is a phenomenal defensive
mind and coach. He is a great motivator of players in private. He is a great
manager of the BYU football experience as it is presented to the players and
public in general. He is unequaled in that role.
But, until consistently proven otherwise, his game management skills
and personnel management skills are still a little sketchy, in my opinion. I
cite the four losses before November last season and the inexplicable loyalty to
playing an injured Riley Nelson as prime examples.
2.
A new and unproven offensive coaching staff. Yes, there is excitement
surrounding this new staff. Robert Anae is back. We will find out in a hurry if
that is a good thing or a bad thing. My initial reaction is that it is a good
thing.
Of the 5 new offensive coaches, 3 have absolutely zero, zip, nada or
nothing when it comes to experience coaching at the Division I level. Anae and
Guy Holliday, the wide receiver coach, have been around the Division I block,
but QB coach Jason Beck, Running Back coach Mark Atuaia and offensive line
coach, Garett Tujague have never coached a down at the Division I level.
3. The
talent level is good, but not National Championship or Top 10 caliber. Bronco
Mendenhall, unabashedly
says BYU can be a BCS contender and eventually a National Champion. He bases
that, in part, on how well BYU competed and played against Notre Dame last
season in
The rationale for optimism seems to be that Notre Dame
played in the National title game and BYU played competitively with the Irish,
so consequently BYU should be able to also play for a national crown.
Here’s the problem. Notre Dame was not a
national caliber team. They were undefeated when facing
BYU has talent this coming season, but quite frankly,
it is not national championship talent.
That’s the bad news. Even with a potential
glossy record of 12-0, 11-1, or 10-2, BYU won’t be national title
worthy.
The good news is that BYU could very well be Top 25
material. So take the top 25 and divide it by 3. In my opinion, If BYU can
beast Texas at home and Notre Dame on the road, the Cougars should be a lock
for somewhere in the bottom third of those rankings; somewhere between No.
17-25 in the national polls. Wins over
Anything higher than that is not in the cards or the ingrained money
and power structure that is under the current control of the Big 5 Leagues and
tier 1 football.
If you can delete national championship from your dreams and vocabulary
for this season, then BYU football will be a very entertaining endeavor this
year.
The reason for that projection is players.
BYU has some good ones.
Using my Divide
by 3 model here are some evaluations of some of BYU’s best
players and their projections and production for the coming season.
Taysom Hill, QB…He
will not be better than Robert Griffin III and what he produced at Baylor.
It’s likely he won’t be better than Johnny “Football”
Manziel was last season at Texas A&M. Both produced Heisman trophies for
their performances.
Barring a season-ending injury in the first quarter of the season
opener against Virginia Hill will be better than Riley Nelson; BYU’s
starting quarterback of last year at BYU.
This year Hill will be a pass first, run later quarterback. That suits
his skill set more effectively than the primarily option read offense of last
season…and protects his knee.
Think Steve Young, and then divide it by 3, at least in this, the first
full year of Hill at the helm. Steve Young, divided by 3, in my opinion will be
Steve Sarkisian, with Jake Locker type legs and escapability.
Running Backs…Think
Luke Staley, then divide by 3. That equals Jamaal Williams and Adam Hine.
Williams, has more shake than Staley, but not the speed of the former Cougar
great. Hine, in my opinion, could be the next Harvey Unga for BYU. How and when
the duo is deployed and used in the new up tempo offense and by a new offensive
coaching staff, remains to be seen.
Wide Receivers…Think
Austin Collie, but that would be wishful thinking. He isn’t coming back
wearing Cougar blue. Last season it was Cody Hoffman subtracted by 3.
Hoffman had no help last year. He was the downfield, underneath and
intermediate pass game. If Hoffman can get help from anybody else on the
receiving roster this season, BYU will be back in the passing business and
Robert Anae and new receiver coach, Guy Holliday, will get credit for it. In
reality, for the Cougar offense to be a legitimate passing threat, Hoffman will
need to be multiplied, not divided by 3.
One name that has popped up over the summer and mentioned by Taysom
Hill and Ammon Olson, the No. 1 and 2 BYU quarterbacks, heading into fall camp,
is Mitch Mathews. Both QB’s have said that he is a receiver to keep your
eye on in the fall. At 6-6, the redshirt sophomore caught 2 passes last season.
Offensive Line…Start
with 8 new bodies this season on the offensive line roster and hope that at
least 3 can play and compete at this level. This is the preseason area with the
most optimism, excitement, hype and hope.
Divide that optimism by 3 and it might still be an improvement over
last season. Don’t expect miracles here. Be satisfied if these guys can
keep Taysom Hill healthy. Anything over that, at least at the start of the
season, will be a bonus. Garett Tujague, the new offensive line coach has said
that the two guys that were already on the roster that have impressed him the
most since he arrived on campus in January are Michael Yeck and Terrance
Alletto.
Alletto is a 6-3, 285 pound redshirt sophomore and Yeck is a 6-8, 290
pound redshirt junior. For an interesting interview with Tujague by KSL last
Saturday, Click
Here and then scroll down the left hand side to the Tujague segment.
Kicking Game…Based
on last season’s field goal kicking performance, Bronco should use the
divide by 3 model this season. Divide the football field by 3 and you get 33.
Anytime the Cougars have a fourth down anywhere inside the 33 yard line, they
should keep the offense on the field and go for it.
Defense…You
can’t argue with the production and performance of a Bronco Mendenhall
defense, so we won’t. It should be good again this season.
Ziggy Ansah was a major player last season. You can’t argue that,
but you can argue that if not for an injury to Eathyn Manumaleuna, Ansah
wouldn’t have been selected in the NFL draft.
Kyle Van Noy is a major player. You can’t argue that, but you
should probably divide by 3 just how productive you think he will be this
season. That is because on every single snap, opposing offenses will have 3
guys focusing on Van Noy in an effort to keep him from making plays. He will be
as good as he has been and maybe even better, but his defensive stats will
probably go down because of all the attention he will be receiving from
opposing teams.
Hard and Fast…If
Robert Anae’s description his new offense actually comes to fruition,
then older Cougar fans like me with bladder or prostate problems will have to
mimic the new offense.
During bathroom breaks some of us patrons may also have to go hard and
go fast, or risk missing some of the up tempo offense on the field. We already
go often.
Last season, BYU possessed the ball on offense for 414 minutes and 21
seconds. During that time they ran a total of 1003 offensive plays. That works
out on the average to a play every 24.8 seconds.
There has been big time talk about the number of plays BYU will be
running this season. The announced plan is to run an offensive play
approximately every 12 seconds or twice as many plays as were run last season.
It won’t happen. I base that assumption on the
A play every 12 seconds is a nice projection by BYU and its offense
this fall, but a more realistic result will probably be a play every 18-19
seconds.
However, if Anae and his associates can actually meet their offensive
goal of a play every 12 seconds, then I will have a new entrepreneurial
enterprise to pursue. The basic business plan would involve securing the rights
from BYU to install Depends
diaper dispensers in every bathroom at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
The harder and faster the new BYU offense runs, the less I will have
to.
BYU will go undefeated - in August, but I see 3 Likely Losses for BYU on the
season…BYU will be undefeated in July and August during fall
camp and against
That should last until
BYU will be a very good football team, but they are starting the year
with a historical deficit that should cost them at least three games.
As good as Taysom Hill is, he will be a first year starting quarterback
for BYU. Go back and look at BYU football history. Guys like Ty Detmer, Steve
Sarkisian, John Beck, John Walsh and even Steve Young, to name a few,
didn’t set the world on fire during their first seasons playing
quarterback for BYU.
Hopefully Hill is different, but history isn’t on his side.
Players to be named later may work in trades in Major League baseball,
but it is a bad thing to be talking about in college football with the season
just 8 weeks away. Players to be named later is what the BYU offensive line is
all about at the moment.
A new quarterback and unproven and even unknown offensive linemen is
not a good combination with which to start the season.
Come November, when Hill should have experience and the offensive line
will be better, Notre Dame and
Until then, I still see a minimum of three defeats for the Cougars in
2013.
BYU Already Has 8 ½ Football
Wins…In Recruiting
Bronco Mendenhall and his staff never get any vacation time when it
comes to recruiting. It is a year round deal.
Here are the current 8 1/2 commitments that the Cougars have secured
for the upcoming 2014 recruiting class.
Teancum (Tico) Fuga,
DL, 6-1, 280, Edison HS, CA…The younger brother of Romney Fuga. Had
offers from
Sione Takitaki, DL,
6-3, 240, Heritage HS, CA…Had offers from
Chandon Herring,
OL, 6-7, 260, Perry HS, AZ…Had recruiting interest from
Austin Chambers,
OL, 6-5, 285,
Fred Warner, LB,
6-3, 205, Mission Hills HS, CA…Recruited and offered by Cal, Arizona,
ASU, Utah, Washington State and most recently, USC. Is LDS.
Trey Dye, WR, 5-11,
175, Cooper HS, TX…Recruited by
Zac Dawe, DL, 6-4,
260, Pleasant Grove HS, UT…Recruited by Utah, Utah State, Boise State
with interest from Nebraska. Is LDS.
Neil Pauu. QB, 6-3,
190, Servite HS, CA…Committed over a year ago. His older brother Butch
signed with the Cougars last February. Is LDS.
Isaiah Nacua, DL,
6-3, 255, Bishop Gorman HS, NV, now Timpview HS,
Weekly Publishing of the Newsletter
in August
Cougar Sporstsline will renew our weekly publication schedule beginning
with the start of fall football camp for BYU in August.