HB Arnett’s

COUGAR SPORTSLINE

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hbarnett@fiber.net and hbarnett@xmission.com

PO Box 50424 Provo, Utah 84605

 

Vol. 29, Issue 9 - September 29, 2008

                                                                                                    

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CAN YOU HAVE A ONCE IN A LIFETIME EXPERIENCE TWICE?

 

  Having a once in a lifetime experience twice is kind of like having deja vu all over again.

  Feeble minds like mine are not equipped to deal with such philosophical puzzles as these.

  A once in a lifetime experience was what I thought I had when BYU won a national championship in football in 1984.

  Been there, done that.

  Now, I may have to gear up again for a sequel.

  If Harrison Ford and Sylvester Stallone can continue to do movies, I guess I can expand my life expectancy to include another once in a lifetime national title in football.

  Believe it or not, there are now actually some credible national college football writers and commentators making an early case for BYU as a national title possibility.

  We aren't one of those. But as many like to point out, we aren't national and we aren't credible.

  Half of that description also applies to ESPN College Football analyst Kirk Herbstreit.

  You may remember that it was Herbstreit who dismissed BYU before the season started and said that Fresno State was way better than the Cougars. He has now been backtracking on his assessment of BYU.

  Not me. I said before the season started and I will say it again now, BYU will not go undefeated this season. Nothing against the Cougars. They are a very, very good football team, but in our opinion, going undefeated in the college game goes against the percentages.

  We cite USC, Florida, Wake Forest and even Virginia losing to Duke last week. as examples of the nature of college football.

  That is why I still stick with the prediction of BYU losing at least one game this year. I also want to go on the record by saying that the one loss will not happen this week against Utah State in Logan.

  As Bronco Mendenhall preaches, however, we have to be held accountable for what we say.

  As punishment for my predictions, if they don't come to fruition, I will volunteer to co-star with Stallone in his next movie. The working title is Rambo In a Rest Home.

  Like Herbstreit, however, it never hurts to cover your backside in case I am wrong and BYU does go undefeated.

  Here then is the front side of the BCS and BYU.

  BYU is currently ranked No. 7 in the USA Today Coaches Poll and No. 9 in the Harris Interactive Poll. Those are the two polls that count. Both are used by the BCS in its formula for picking teams for a national title game. Each poll is a third of the formula.

  For the record, BYU is also ranked No. 8 in the most recent AP poll.

  Also, for the record, and since the interest and BYU are both so high in the polls this early in the season, here is the actual BCS Rankings formula. The first release of BCS rankings will be issued on October 19. That will be three days after BYU has played TCU in Fort Worth. Hopefully this all won't be a moot point by then.

  If the Cougars get a win over TCU in Texas, you can then count me in for the national title debate.

 

BCS Rankings

 

Standings include three components: USA Today Coaches Poll, Harris Interactive College Football Poll and an average of six computer rankings. Each component will count one-third toward a team's overall BCS score.

 

All three components shall be added together and averaged for a team's ranking in the BCS Standings. The team with the highest average shall rank first in the BCS Standings. The first BCS Standings of the 2008 season will be released on Sunday, October 19. The BCS Standings will be used for:

 

1. Selecting the teams that will participate in the national championship game.

 

2. Determining any other automatic qualifiers; and,

 

3. Establishing the pool of eligible teams for at-large selection.

 

Polls

 

In the Harris Interactive Football Poll and USA Today Coaches Poll, a team will be evaluated on the number of voting points it receives in each poll. A team's Harris Interactive score will be its points in the poll divided by its total possible voting points (if 114 voters, then 2850=114x25). The same formula will apply to the USA Today Coaches poll and its total voting points (if 63 voters, then 1575=63x25).

 

The number of actual voters, which can vary, is figured into the computation on a weekly basis in stating each team's percentage of a possible perfect score.

 

Computer Rankings

 

Six computer rankings will be used: Jeff Sagarin, Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, and Dr. Peter Wolfe. Points will be assigned in inverse order of ranking from 1-25. A team's highest and lowest computer ranking will be discarded in calculating its computer rankings average. The four remaining computer scores will be averaged and the total will be calculated as a percentage of 100.

 

  All BYU has to do to make noise in the national title story and BCS rankings is continue to win. That will take care of two-thirds of the equation with the two polls.

  The interesting part of the equation are the six computer polls.

  They are quirky at best.

  For example, Sagarin currently has BYU rated No. 8. Boise State is rated No. 6 and Utah is in at No. 10.

  Andersen & Hester won't have its first rating release until Oct 19. Last year, their final pre-bowl game rankings had Missouri No. 1, Kansas No. 2 followed by LSU, USC and Georgia.

  Wolfe's ratings also won't be release until Oct 19. Last year his system had Virginia Tech finishing at No. 1 followed by Oklahoma, LSU, Missouri and Ohio State.

  The latest Colley Matrix ranking has BYU ranked No. 19. Alabama is No. 1 and Vanderbilt is No. 2. Utah is rated No. 3 and Boise State is currently No. 8.

  Billingsly currently has BYU at No. 8. He has Boise State at No. 12 and Utah at No. 13.

  Massey has Alabama as his current No. 1 team with Northwestern rated No. 2 and Vanderbilt at No. 3. Utah is No. 4, Boise State is No. 5 and BYU is ranked No. 19.

  As you can see, BYU is doing extremely well on the actual football field and in the two polls that count, but when it comes to the six computer rankings, it is still quite quirky.

 

Polls and People

 

  Since the polls are really a popularity contest of people selected to vote it might be a good time to take a look at some of those people who either have BYU or Mountain West connections.

  Here are some names we found in the Harris Poll with those connections.

  Bob Gagliardi is the sports editor of the Wyoming Tribune in Cheyenne. He covers the Cowboys. Earle Bruce is a former Colorado State head coach and a very good friend of LaVell Edwards. Lee Grosscup is a former Utah quarterback from several decades ago. Rondo Fehlberg is a former BYU AD. Bob Frederick is a former Kansas AD and a former BYU basketball assistant under Glen Potter. Fred Goldsmith is a former Duke head coach and a former Air Force assistant coach. Jim Copeland is a former Virginai and SMU AD. He also worked two years at Utah as an AD. Chad Henning is a former Air Force player. Tim Neverett is a current broadcaster for the Mtn Network.

  As for the coaches poll, Joe Glenn of Wyoming, Rocky Long of New Mexico, Gary Patterson of TCU and Kyle Whittingham of Utah all have votes.

  Besides Glenn, both Rick Neuheisel and Tyrone Willingham have also played BYU and have votes in the coaches poll. Urban Meyer has Mountain West connections, having been the coach at Utah for two years. Hal Mumme made several stops at BYU studying the Cougar's offense makes no bones about the fact that his offense is patterned after BYU's. He currently is the head guy at New Mexico State. Steve Kragthorpe, now the coach at Louisville, has Provo connections. He lived there when his dad was an assistant for LaVell Edwards. Mike Price has BYU connections from his days at the coach at Weber State.

 

HAWS PICKS BYU

 

  It was a big day for BYU basketball last Wednesday when Tyler Haws, the 6-5 wing from Lone Peak HS in Utah, told Dave Rose that he would be signing an early letter of intent with the Cougars in November.

  Haws had narrowed his college choice to either Stanford or BYU.

  Here are the vital stats for Haws.

  He has led his high school team to two straight 5-A state championships.

  He has been a two time state MVP as selection by one of the state's two major newspapers.

  He averaged 18.8 points per game as a sophomore and 20.8 points as a junior.

  He was the 2008 Utah Gatorade Player of the year.

  Those are the things that you can put on paper.

  What Dave Rose and all other programs recruiting Haws wanted, was what you couldn't put on paper and what they saw on the court.

  Haws is a player. He is not a highlight film.

  Most basketball fans confuse the two.

  What Haws does is win. He will not be a Kobe Bryant or Lebron James.

  He doesn't have that kind of athletic ability.

 

Manu Genobli

 

 We have described Haws before as a Manu Genobli type player. The 6-6 Argentinean is not extremely athletic and certainly isn't a Kobe Bryant or Lebron James, but he can score on them and play with them and more importantly, beat them.

  Here's our take on Haws. He is a decent shooter. Not great, but decent. He is a decent ball handler. Not great, but decent. He rebounds well for his size. Not great, but decent.

  He is a great finisher and a great go-to-guy.

  We expect that to continue at BYU.

  When BYU has been good, they have had go-to players and finishers. The two most recent were Keena Young and Travis Hansen.

  We expect Haws to be a level or two above those two as a finisher and go-to guy.

  As good as Young and Hansen were, the last time BYU had a go-to guy who could deliver a clutch NCAA win, his name was Danny Ainge.

  Haws is no Ainge. Ainge was an open court player. Haws is a slasher and a scorer.  What Haws does is finish. He can get to the basket and either convert or get fouled. That is a rarity these days.

  He also is a guy that wants the ball in his hands when the game is on the line and more importantly, he is a guy that the coaches want to have the ball in those same situations.

  The commitment by Haws has been the culmination of five years of recruiting by Rose and his staff.

  Haws has been at the top of their board for the last three seasons.

  He has also been the topic of recruiting conversations by BYU fans for the last two years.

  We have never had so many emails from so many different people who claim to be neighbors, ward members, insiders, clairvoyants and clerics, who have mostly said that Haws would not be signing with BYU.

  That told us just how good Haws was as a player and how good Dave Rose was as a recruiter.

 

FLUFF AND STUFF

 

Back in the WAC...In 2012, BYU will have a MWC schedule and a WAC schedule. This past week it was announced that BYU and Hawaii have agreed on a two game home and home schedule. BYU will host the Warriors in Provo in 2012 and then play in Honolulu in 2013.

  That means that in 2012, BYU will be playing 3 WAC teams and Washington as part of their non-conference slate for that year. The other two WAC teams will be Boise State and Utah State

  There are some who think that BYU adding Hawaii could be taking a page out of the Rick Majerus recruiting book.

  The old Utah basketball coach always told recruits that if they signed with him, he would do all he could do to make sure that he would schedule a game in, or close to, the home town of that particular recruit during his time in Majerus' program.

  That could also be the case with Manti Te'o, the outstanding linebacker from Punahou HS in Hawaii.

  Te'o, who is LDS, has indicated that regardless of where he signs, he will be serving an LDS mission. That means that should he sign with the Cougars, he would play as a freshman in 2009, be gone for the 2010 and 2011 seasons while on a mission and then be back in time to play in Provo in 2012 and in Honolulu in 2013.

 

Quarterback Time Line...It is no secret that BYU coaches have a timeline for quarterbacks at BYU for the next eight years.

  It involves Max Hall for this season and next. It then includes Riley Nelson, the soon-to-be transfer from Utah State.

  Jake Heaps is also in the plans, despite the fact that he is only a junior in high school and BYU still has to recruit and sign him.

  Heck, why stop at eight years?

  Let's throw in another possible qb prospect who is still in junior high.

  His name is Tanner Mangum and he is a ninth grader at Les Bois Junior High in Boise.

  The thing that sets Mangum apart from other junior high students at his school is that after the final bell, he boards a school bus and heads over to Timberline High School, where he is the starting qb.

  In his first game, he threw for 335 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-27 win over Kuna. He was 14 years old at the time. He has since turned 15.

  Mangum, is 6-1, 165 pounds. His older brother, Parker Mangum, was a walkon at BYU last year. After three games, Mangum, the ninth grader, had completed 67-108 passes for 1002 yards and 10 touchdowns.

  We don't know if this kid will continue to develop and be a Division I prospect, but as long as the Cougars are already out eight years on their quarterback recruiting chart, they might as well make it twelve years.

 

More Offers...BYU continues to recruit for the future. Recently the Cougars have put three more scholarships on the table for two high school juniors and a sophomore. All three are LDS.

  Harvey Langi is a 6-1, 205 pound sophomore running back from Bingham HS in Salt Lake. BYU has made him a scholarship offer. He would be part of the 2011 class.

  The Cougars have also offered junior defensive lineman Kona Schwenke of Kahuku HS in Hawaii. Schwenke is currently 6-5, 210 pounds.

  BYU also has put an offer on the table for junior linebacker Zac Stout. He plays at Oaks Christian, a private high school in Westlake, CA. The school is a Division I factory. Stout is 6-2, 215 pounds.

 

 

TELEVISION TIMETABLE

 

BYU vs. Utah State

Friday, Oct 3 at Logan

Kickoff: 6:00 pm Mountain Time

TV: KJZZ (tentative) and BYUTV

BYU vs. New Mexico

Saturday, Oct 11 at Provo

Kickoff: 4:00 PM Mountain Time

TV: Mtn

BYU vs. TCU

Thursday, Oct 16 at Fort Worth

Kickoff: 6:00 pm Mountain Time

TV: Versus