HB Arnett’s
COUGAR SPORTSLINE
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hbarnett@fiber.net and hbarnett@xmission.com
Vol. 29,
Issue 16 – November 17, 2008
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COUGAR
OFFENSE TOO MUCH FOR FALCONS IN 38-24 WIN
It was too much
Austin Collie, Dennis Pitta and Max Hall and just enough Cougar defense in just
the right spots.
That formula gave
BYU its 10th win of the season, a 38-24 victory over the Air Force Falcons.
It also was the
Cougars first win of the year against a team with a winning record. More
importantly, it was a win on the road and a nice tune up for what to expect
this week against
With one regular
season game left, BYU is now 10-1 on the year and 6-1 in MWC play.
This game looked a
lot like the last few games.
It saw plenty of
Hall to Collie and Pitta and just enough of Harvey Unga to swamp a gutsy and
gritty, but not great, Air Force defense.
Collie continued
his torrid streak as a receiver. He had 7 catches for 130 yards and two
touchdowns. His final was a 45-yard TD clincher for the Cougars late in the
fourth quarter.
Nine
Games
Collie now has
nine consecutive games of 100 plus yards in receptions and is the new single
season record holder with 1185 yards this year.
Pitta also had
another big day with nine catches for 113 yards. Unga had 19 carries for 88
yards and also scored two touchdowns on short bursts of 1 and 2 yards.
Hall had two
turnovers with a pick that came off a deflected pass and a fumble trying to get
a first down.
Other than those
two miscues and a couple of could-have-been interceptions that were dropped by
Air Force defenders, Hall completed 28-of 37 passes for 354 yards and two
touchdowns.
The BYU defense
didn't look good on the stat sheet giving up 421 yards of offense to the
Falcons, but they picked their spots and made some key defensive stops early in
the third quarter that allowed the Cougars to come back from a 14-10 halftime
deficit and basically win the game in the third quarter with a 21-point
outburst. The Cougars amassed 480 yards of total offense.
Injuries
BYU lost three key
players to injury in the game. Ray Feinga, the outstanding guard, left early in
the first half with a back strain. Andrew Rich had his bell run early in the
second half and never returned, and on BYU's last drive, Dennis Pitta suffered
a MCL sprain of his knee.
With
The best objective
minds in college football think
We have our point
spread also and it is at three.
We see this game
being determined by three key positions.
It starts at
quarterback.
If Max Hall can
get decent protection and continue his productive passing, BYU has a shot.
Hall has been
superlative this season and is the reason that BYU is 10-1.
He certainly has
some nice offensive weapons to complement him in receiver Austin Collie, tight
end Dennis Pitta and running back Harvey Unga, but let's be honest; without
Hall BYU would be lucky to have six or seven wins.
BYU can't out
defense
The Ute defense is
very good, but it is not in the same league as the defense of TCU. We also
think that you can throw the ball on the Utes, if you can give Hall some protection.
Interesting
Here is where it
gets interesting.
In the Hall versus
Brian Johnson match up, both have demonstrated abilities to deliver touchdowns
when the game is on the line.
Johnson's two
signature wins came when he had game-winning drives against
Hall had to
deliver touchdowns to seal the deal against UNLV, CSU and Air Force.
Hall has the edge
in passing. He has completed 279-of-390 passes for 3424 yards. He has thrown 34
touchdowns and been picked off 8 times.
Johnson has
completed 211-of-317 passes for 2333 yards and 20 touchdowns with 9 picks.
If this was a
seven-on-seven passing league game, we would make Hall a prohibitive favorite.
Of course, it is a real football game where BYU defenders have to make real
tackles in the open field against Johnson who can tuck the ball and go.
Here is what we
see happening.
We actually see
the BYU defense playing one of their better games. We expect them to keep the
ball in front of them and bend but not break.
Unfortunately,
that bend, but not break, philosophy plays right into
The Utes are hands
down the better team when it comes to kicking.
They have an NFL
kicker in Louie Sakoda. Even if the Cougars can manufacture some key stops,
anything from the BYU's 30-40 yard line and in will still result in points for
Sakoda is 19-of-21
in field goals made. His only two misses came against Air Force and were from
48 and 54 yards out.
He is perfect from
47 yards in.
To his credit,
Mitch Payne has also had a good year kicking for the Cougars. he has only
missed 2 field goals and is 9-of-11 on the year.
Payne has been
good, but Sakoda has been great.
The key match
up, in our opinion, is between Justin Sorensen of BYU and Ben Vroman of
They both handle
kickoffs for their respective teams.
Sorensen has been
unable to consistently kick the ball into the endzone on kickoffs for the
Cougars. He was touted for his strong leg and recruited to give the Cougars favorable
field position in games.
Hasn't
Happened
Frankly, that
hasn't happened...yet.
Vroman, on the
other hand is money at putting the ball in and out of the end zone for the
Utes, especially in
What's the big
deal with kickoffs and field position?
Even with a
touchback and the ball brought out to the twenty, the Utes only have to drive
the ball 50-yards to the opponents’ 30 yard line to almost be guaranteed
a score from Sakoda.
Any runbacks,
beyond the 20, on short kickoffs is a big bonus for
On paper and on
the field,
We can definitely
see why the Utes are a six-point pick.
What we can't see
and nobody else can either, is how this game will play out.
Despite what they
say publicly, the pressure has to be enormous for the Utes. They are playing
for $4.5 million dollars, even after having to share a BCS fistful of money.
Move The
Ball
As good as the Ute
defense is and has been, both TCU and
As good as Brian
Johnson has been this season, he still can be erratic with his throwing.
Nobody likes to
mention the "choke" word at
Speaking of
coaches, since Bronco Mendenhall took over the BYU program,
BYU was better in
players. That is why the Cougars are now 2-1 against the Utes under Mendenhall.
This season is
different. For the first time in four years, Mendenhall has finally admitted
that the
It will be
interesting to see how a declared "big game" by Mendenhall, finally
plays out.
Here is how we see
it.
The Utes have not
allowed any team to score 30 plus points against them this season.
For the Cougars to
win, they have to get to at least 30.
We don't see it.
We call it Utah 34 BYU 27.
The Utes are
currently 11-0 on the year and ranked No. 8 in the AP poll and No. 7 in the
latest BCS rankings
Kickoff is set for
4 pm local time and the game will only be seen on the Mtn.
FLUFF
AND STUFF
BCS BOUNCING...You need a GPS tracking
system to follow BYU in the BCS rankings since they were first released on Oct
19.
The Cougars have
been all over the map.
They started at
No. 21, move a notch down to No. 20, then jumped dramatically to No. 15 in week
three of the rankings.
That was followed
by a slip to No. 17 a week ago and just this week with BYU's first win over a
winning team, they were rewarded with a three spot bump to No. 14.
We still hold to
our scenario that a win over
A year ago, BYU
finished No. 17 in the BCS standings during their final release in early December
before bowl games.
THIS WAS MWC TEAMS CHANCE…If the
other teams in the MWC didn't take down the Cougars this year, they missed
there best chance for a long time to come.
This was a year
when the defense was vulnerable and BYU had to face all the upper tier league
teams on the road. That would be
Next year, with an
offense that returns locked and loaded and with a defense that will have nine
months to find anwwers at middle linebacker and safety, the Cougars' MWC window
of vulnerability is closing fast.
As we mentioned
last week, most BYU fans, after the TCU game, started feel like this is a
rebuilding year. Depending on what happens this week, BYU will be either 11-1
or 10-2 in a "down" season.
That should tell
you all you need to know about where the BYU football program is now.
A few years back
they locked on early to James Lark and had him pegged and committed as their
No. 1 qb guy for that year.
Before that high
school football season was over, Riley Nelson, out of Logan HS, turned out to
be the better prospect. BYU was late to the party and already had a vested
interest in Lark.
Nelson signed with
The point is that
BYU went for the athlete and arm instead of production. Lark may well be a
big-time qb for the Cougars, but our money is on Nelson. Lark was more athletic
and has a stronger arm than Nelson, but the
As Yogi Berra
said, it is deja vu all over again.
BYU is locked in
on Jake Heaps, whom many consider the best qb prospect in next year's national
recruiting class. So do we.
BYU needs this kid
and will be lucky to get him. He is phenomenal as a junior and should be
spectacular next season as a high school senior.
We bring this up
because there is another quarterback coming out of
We are talking
about Alex Kuresa, a sophomore qb at Mountain Crest HS in Hyrum.
Yes, he is the
younger and much smaller brother of former Cougar offensive lineman Jake
Kuresa.
His athletic
bloodlines are not in question. He is also the cousin or recent BYU basketball
signee Tyler Haws.
Here is the deal.
As a sophomore who looks like he may have trouble spelling puberty, let alone
reaching it at this point in his career, his arm is more lollipop than launcher
at this stage. Yet, he made every throw and every needed play
against a vaunted Timpview defense.
At fifteen, his
arm strength and size should have a huge upside.
All we know is
that the kid single handedly picked apart a Timpview defense that has at least
four or five division I recruits and two of those recruits are in the Timpview
secondary and coveted by the Cougars.
The most points
any team this season had scored against Timpview was 14 points. Kuresa made the
T-Bird defense look silly with his playmaking ability and clutch throws despite
his Mountain Crest team being outmanned and out athleted and losing in the
closing seconds 35-37 to Timpview.
Kuresa finished
with 344 yards passing and 4 touchdowns and also ran for 42 yards and a
touchdown on 11 carries.
Here's the deal.
Nelson is the real deal. Heaps is the real deal and what we thought was just a
nice story last season when Kuresa was the starting qb as a freshman, has, in
our opinion, turned into the real deal.
Even with Heaps,
BYU needs to find a place for this Kuresa kid and create at least a two year
eligibility gap and space between him and Heaps.
A gray shirt, an
LDS mission and redshirt year would do the trick, but playmaking LDS
quarterbacks only come around every so often. You have to do what you can to
make sure your roster is filled with them.
CUMMARD SHOWS A LOT OF VEGAS IN
It took a while
for us to even be in the ball park with the prediction, but we felt a little
vindicated last year when he was selected as co-MVP of the Mountain West
Conference.
We feel even
better now that Cummard looked Ainge-like by scoring 36 against LBSU in BYU's
75-65 season opening win over the 49ers.
The Cougars will
be back in action this week with a game at Pepperdine on Tuesday and three
games in three nights in
It is way early
and without the benefit of watching BYU perform on the road, but our assessment
is that this will be a very good team.
They are stronger
and deeper at the guard line than they were a year ago and will have more front
court scoring prowess.
TELEVISION
TIMETABLE
BYU vs.
Thursday, Nov 20 at Prov0
Tipoff: 7:30 pm Mountain
Time
TV: BYUTV
BYU vs.
Rice
Friday, Nov 21 at
Tipoff: 8:30 pm Mountain
Time
TV: BYUTV
BYU vs.
Cal Poly
Sat, Nov 22 at
Tipoff: 8:30 pm Mountain
Time
TV: BYUTV
BYU vs.
Saturday, Nov 22 at
Kickoff: 4:00 pm Mountain
Time
TV: Mtn