HB Arnett’s

COUGAR SPORTSLINE

 801 372  0819

hbarnett@fiber.net and hbarnett@xmission

PO Box 50424 Provo, Utah 84605

 

Vol. 28, Issue 4, August 27, 2007

                                                                                                    

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BYU WILL NEED TO MANAGE ARIZONA GAME

 

  BYU coaches are not expecting Max Hall, BYU's new starting quarterback, to win the upcoming season opener against Arizona, when the Cougars open the year against the Wildcats in Provo, Saturday, Sept. 1.

  He is simply too green and inexperienced to make enough plays against a quality defense and do it all by himself.

  What coaches are expecting, however, is for Hall to not lose the game. That means he will be expected to protect the ball and give his teammates a legitimate chance to come away with a win.

  Hall is a gunslinger. He is used to being the big gun on the field. That is how he played in high school and how he has tried to play this fall. He is used to being a star that makes plays that lead to wins.

  We expect that same thing to happen at BYU, but not anytime soon and especially not in Hall's first two games against the legitimate Pac 10 defenses of Arizona and UCLA.

  If Hall was running the show, he would come out in full gunslinger mode. That is just who he is.

  He is not running the show. You can expect BYU coaches to put Hall's gun in the holster for the next two games.

  If you are hoping for a BYU offensive explosion coming out of the gate against Arizona, you will likely be disappointed.

 

The NFL Way

 

  We expect Bronco Mendenhall and his staff to try and win this game the way most NFL coaching staffs do.

  They will try and win with field position, kicking and defense.

  It makes sense to us.

  The BYU defense is the strength of this team. Expect Mendenhall to try and let them win this game for him.

  Arizona returns 10 starters from a defense that held BYU in bay last year in Tucson and only allowed one touchdown. Yeah, we know that another touchdown was nullified by a suspect call by a Pac 10 crew, but in the books and on the scoreboard, BYU couldn't muster enough offense for a win.

  That was with John Beck, a seasoned and talented quarterback, who is now in the NFL.

  We would be surprised if Max Hall is allowed to throw the ball against Arizona more than 25 times. If he does throw it more than that, it will be because most of those throws will be while he is dumping the ball off to his running backs and adhering to the low risk, protect the ball mode Cougar coaches want. The BYU passing game will not be vertical against the Wildcat defense.

 

Running Game

 

  For BYU to win they will have to have a productive outing from their running game. It will be required to take the opening game pressure off Hall and to create and maintain the field position that will be vital to producing a win.

  That means that Harvey Unga will have to live up to his preseason billing and Fui Vakapuna will have to be healthy enough to return to his early-season physical form of last year.

  Manase Tonga, a returning starter in the BYU backfield, will not play against UofA. He will be fulfilling his one-game suspension imposed by Mendenhall earlier this summer.

  While Hall's job is to protect the ball and not make any dumb decisions and ill-advised throws resulting in turnovers, it will be the job of Unga and Vakapuna to rush for at least 100 yards between them. If they can't, BYU can't win.

  We expect the Cougar defense to do their job. Arizona is bringing a new spread offense to Provo, but they are also bringing the same quarterbacks from last year to run that pass-happy offense.

 

Scheme and Talent

 

  Despite some devastating injuries on the defensive side of the ball, BYU has a good enough scheme and enough talent defensively to disrupt this new Arizona scheme.

  We expect BYU's offense to do its job. They should be able to protect the ball and not commit an extraordinary amount of turnovers. They should have a good enough offensive line and running game to deflect the heat from Hall in his first outing. They should also be good enough to not lose the field position war between the two teams.

  The defense under Mendenhall is a proven commodity. Don't expect Arizona to light up the scoreboard with their new offense against this BYU unit.

  In the three-part formula for a win, the BYU offense should give the Cougars good field position and be able to run the ball enough to keep the clock running and the chances of a win real.

  The Cougar defense will give up an occasional big play to Arizona, but they won't allow them to run up and down the field.

 

Kicking Game

 

  That leaves the BYU kicking game as the final piece of the game-plan puzzle.

  Winning the field position game requires that you have a decent-to-good punter.  It also implies that you have a kicker that can give you decent field position on kickoffs.

  But most importantly, it implies that you have a consistent kicker that can make field goals from 40 yards in.

  We don't know if BYU has that and neither do the BYU coaches.

  C.J. Santiago will be the punter after transferring into the program this summer from Orange Coast College in Costa Mesa, CA.

  Mitch Payne will handle the kicking duties. The redshirt freshman is the younger brother of former Cougar kicker Matt Payne.

  Quite frankly, the Cougar kicking game was spotty during fall camp. There was some improvement made in the late going of camp, but it should still be a concern for coaches.

  An even bigger concern should be how these two key guys perform when the "lights are on" and the game is on the line.

 

Explosion

 

  With a new quarterback at the BYU helm going up against a veteran and talented Arizona defense, we would consider anything over 17 points, an offensive explosion for the Cougars.

  We expect this game to be a defensive battle and a game that will be decided by turnovers.

  While we expect this to be a defensive game,  we also expect the BYU offense to shake the ground just enough to get a win. We call it BYU 20 Arizona 13.

 

BINOCULAR BONUSES

 

  Most football fans focus on the ball when watching a game. Nothing wrong with that.

  Here are a few binocular bonuses that we suggest you watch and think will provide you with some insight to the match up this Saturday when Arizona comes to town to face BYU.

  Find Antoine Cason on the Arizona defense. He wears #5. See where he lines up and against whom.

  He is a legitimate lockdown corner for Arizona and a projected first round NFL draft pick for next April.

  Who he takes on will tell you whom the UofA defensive coaches want to take out of the game. We expect them to have Cason defending Austin Collie for most of the afternoon.

  Now find #32 for BYU on offense. That would be sophomore tight end Dennis Pitta. See how Arizona is going to match up with him. It should be interesting to see if they try to line up against him with a safety or linebacker.

  BYU is hoping this will be a season-long mismatch for defensive coordinators. They are assuming that because Pitta is 6-3, 250 pounds and can run and catch, that linebackers won't have the speed to cover him, and defensive backs won't have the size to win the one-on-one battles.

  Put your binoculars on wide angle when BYU is on offense and focus on the line of scrimmage. This is where the game will really be decided with the match up of the Cougar offensive line versus the Arizona defensive front.

 

Seven or Eight

 

 We think you will be seeing at least seven, and maybe eight, future NFL draft picks battling against each other.

  BYU is thinking this is their most talented offensive line in some time. Arizona is banking on its defensive line's size and speed to wreak havoc with opponents.

  If BYU can run against this Arizona defensive front, they can run against anybody else on their schedule.

  The key for the BYU passing game will be the match up of BYU's two offensive tackles, Dallas Reynolds and David Oswald, against the outside speed rush of Wildcat defensive ends Louis Holmes and Jonathan Turner.

  These match ups won't show up on any highlight reels or news clips, but they will more than likely specifically determine the outcome of the contest.

  Here's another one. Look for #62 on BYU's defense. That is Eathyn Manumaluena, the true freshman nose guard.

  He is forced into play early in his career because of the devastating injury to Russell Tialavea.

  If you want to know how the untested freshman is performing, middle linebacker Kelly Poppinga will let you know. If Poppinga is making plays around the line of scrimmage, that means that Manumaluena is doing his job and plugging gaps and eating up blocks.

  If Poppinga is making most of his tackles downfield, it means that UofA offensive linemen are getting to the second level and getting a helmet on Poppinga. That will take him out of the action until he has to make tackles downfield after the Wildcats have picked up nice yardage.

 

Recruiting Reality

 

  It is the nature of football recruiting that fans expect every BYU recruit to see action as a true freshman because of the talent they exhibited on high school playing fields.

  We all get caught up in the hype.

  It is good for selling subscriptions and keeping fan interest alive during the off season.

  The reality of recruiting, however, is that very few true freshmen contribute unless they have freakishly good abilities or freakishly bad depth charts forces them into action.

  Bronco Mendenhall is hoping that he eventually gets a handle on his depth chart and LDS missions so he doesn't have to play true freshmen.

  BYU's latest recruiting class is indicative of just how subjective the terms "Can't Miss" and "Four Star" really are.

  If was just a few months ago that Cougar fans were sure that at least four or five Cougar high school signees would be starting for BYU this fall. It comes with the fun of following recruiting, but it isn't reality, at least the way Mendenhall wants to make it.

  Here is the official signing list of BYU from last February and where they are now. This will give you a more accurate picture of the talent and time frame from which the Cougars have to work in recruiting.

 

Famika Anae, OL...Will Serve LDS Mission before enrolling.

 

David Angilau, DL...Will redshirt this season and be on Scout team

 

Tyler Beck, LB...Good enough to make travel and special teams. Is a player.

 

Brannon Brooks, DB...Will redshirt and participate on Scout team.

 

Braden Brown, TE...Will Serve LDS Mission before enrolling.

 

J.J. Di Luigi, RB...A can't miss, who is missing the year with foot injury. Even healthy, he would be a spot player this season. Will now redshirt.

 

Scotty Ebert, DB...Didn't qualify academically and is now at Snow College.

 

Kaneakua Friel, TE...Will redshirt and see scout team action.

 

Austen Jorgensen, LB...Will play this season, but sparingly.

 

Ryan Kessman, WR...Was an internet legend, but will now be a redshirt and scout team participant at BYU.

 

Star Lotulelei, DL...Didn't qualify academically.

 

Levi Mack, OL...Juco who is now injured and will redsirt.

 

Devin Mahina, TE/DE...Will serve LDS mission first.

 

Eathyn Manumaleuna, DL...Was just considered a throw in by recruiting pundits a few months ago, but now is the key guy of the entire class because he is the only one of the signees that will be a starter. That status was precipitated by injury, but he would have played this year anyway.

 

Marcus Mathews, WR...Serving an LDS mission before enrolling.

 

Jason Munns, QB...Big and talented, but will redshirt and qb the scout team.

 

Gary Nagy, DB...Redshirting and on scout team.

 

Jordan Pendleton, DB...Is on the depth chart because of rash of injuries to other safeties.

 

G Pittman, DB...Will play because he has shown that he has the ability to play at this level without redshirting.

 

Houston Reynolds, OL..Now serving LDS mission in Germany.

 

Jordan Smith, WR...Could redshirt, but will dress early in season to see how receiver injuries shake out. Has some ability because of 6-4 size and speed.

 

Steven Thomas, DB...Should redshirt, but still tentative because of DB fall camp injuries.

 

Manaaki Vaitai, OL...Will redshirt.

 

Aveni Leung Wai, LB...Is serving LDS mission first.

 

  Out of the 24 players BYU signed last February, only one will see significant minutes and six still have a chance to see spot action.

 

  Other scholarship players that will be redshirting this season include: Matt Reynolds, OL and Matt Putnam, DL. Walkons also redshirting include: Blake Morgan, Spencer Wolfley, Steve Fendry and Matt Shirley.

 

Can't Help But Drool

 

  Despite the disclaimer that most of recruiting is hype and that at BYU recruiting is a four year wait because of missions, we still can't help our self.

  BYU commit Justin Sorensen, a kicker extraordinaire, hit field goals from 59 and 51 yards last week in a battle of the two top high school teams in Utah.

  Sorensen and Bingham defeated Alta and star running back Sausan Shakerin 23-20.

  Sorensen has a huge leg. Because he can put the ball out of the end zone on kickoffs, he will be a huge asset at the next level now that the NCAA has added an additional five yards to all kickoffs beginning this season. The ball will now be spotted at the 30-yard line instead of the 35-yard line for kickoffs.

 

MOUNTAIN MESS...BIG HAT, NO CATTLE

 

  The Mountain Network is the perfect drug store cowboy. They are now wearing a big hat extolling MWC fans to call their satellite companies, but they still have no cattle or significant cable distribution in place.

  The talk and excuses are big, but without a satellite deal in place, the actual distribution of the Mtn network is small and limited.

  That means, barring a last-minute surprise, watching BYU football and basketball on TV for Cougar fans will be the same as it was last year.

  You can't watch the majority of BYU games unless you have access to the Mtn.

 

TELEVISION TIMETABLE

 

BYU vs. Arizona

Saturday, Sept. 1 at Provo

Kickoff: 3:30 pm, Mountain Time

TV: Versus Network

BYU vs. UCLA

Saturday, Sept. 8 at Pasadena

Kickoff: 4:30 pm Mountain Time

TV: Versus Network

BYU vs. Tulsa

Saturday, Sept. 15 at Tulsa

Kickoff: 7:00 pm Mountain Time

TV: CSTV

    

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