great post, Mike. What are the new shorting ideas? Is it the same list
that you posted last week?
What is your rule for shorting? What sma/ema should the stock
hit/touch/move towards on the upside?
Regards,
Deepak
Mike Scott wrote:
> Ian,
> Follow-through days are only a piece of the puzzle to a new
> sustainable rally. Stocks breaking out of sound bases also has to
> happen. Without stocks breaking out of sound bases the market can't go
> very far, or at least it never has. Another poster said a FTD is just
> a FTD, he is right. Leadership breaking into new high ground from
> sound bases is what makes a rally sustainable.
>
> If you go back to the last bear market you will see many rallies off
> the bottom only to be greeted by fresh selling. One or maybe two of
> those bear market rallies was tradeable. One of those rallies saw the
> NASDAQ rise over 50%. The rest were opportunities to lose money for
> CANSLIM types. I went back and counted the number of follow-through
> days in the last bear recently, I think the count was six or eight on
> the NASDAQ only. I don't remember exactly now. We had days with a plus
> six-percent move on the NASDAQ in 2002. It was volatility to the
> extreme. I don't see anything in the current off-the-bottom move that
> is any different than what we experinced in 2001 and 2002. Most of the
> stocks on the IBD-100 are old tired prior leaders with broken bases.
> The bizare FTD that you mentioned also showed very little leadership
> with sound bases. No leadership led to a failed rally. The set up back
> then was better than now. Be careful.
>
> What is missing right now is that no discernable leadership has
> appeared. What that is moving, is off the bottom. People can make
> money there. There are many kinds of investing and being nimble with
> off-the-bottom rallies is one way. It isn't CANSLIM but so what. Go
> for it if you know how to do it. For example puting your money in
> housing or Citibank (C) a week or so ago could have made you some
> money. That kind of investing requires a different discipline and set
> of rules to live by.
>
> We on this group are CANSLIM investors and so here we are mostly in
> cash except for those who are adept at shorting. My focus will remain
> on the IBD100 and the 85-85 lists waiting for leadership to form up. I
> can't see any yet. When it does those stocks will appear on those
> places. I don't have a crystal ball but I am not expecting that to
> happen until next fall. It could be wore than that as the entire
> banking system could fail as well as the fiat paper money system. I
> lived through the last bear and I remember getting sucked in when I
> shouldn't too many times. I may enter a bear market rally if something
> sets up. Until then my shorting watch list is quite full waiting for
> proper set ups to form. They set up with rallies just like the one we
> are having.
>
>
> Mike Scott
>
> Tarzana, CA
>
> -----Original Message-----
> *From:* canslim-bounces@???
> [mailto:canslim-bounces@???]*On Behalf Of *IAN
> ST. MARTIN
> *Sent:* Sunday, February 03, 2008 11:36 AM
> *To:* Canslim@???
> *Subject:* [CANSLIM] IBD just looking at IBD 100?
>
> Last November when IBD declared a bizarre FTD, the only thing that
> went up was the IBD 100. It seemed to me to be quite a change of
> course for them, somewhat ignoring the major indices.
>
> Now, they only seem to be looking for strength in the IBD 100, and
> not finding it, and ignoring index surges this past week.
>
> But wasn't the isolated IBD 100 strength late last year just a
> case of a very thin market - the vast majority of names were
> downtrending or flat, with just a small number of momentum names
> putting in a blowoff top?
>
> And don't new bulls have their own new stocks - so wouldn't it
> make sense that the IBD 100 is weak, even if last week really did
> see a tepid 8th day FTD?
>
> Opinions?
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> _______________________________________________
> Canslim mailing list
> Canslim@???
> http://mailman.xmission.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/canslim
> The List FAQ: http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CANSLIMFAQ.doc
> http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CANSLIMFAQ.zip
