I make very good profits by being in stocks that go up nicely on an up day for M, and often go up even on a down day. In fact, the Nas has to tank about 15-20 points usually for me to suffer a losing day.
TNH went up 4% today while the S&P was down 21. If it goes up on Up days and up on Down days, when are supposed to make money by shorting it? A good short goes down on an Up day for the market.
Duane Runnels <drunnels@???> wrote:
Not my cup of tea. Patience gwasshoppa.
Look at a chart with a 10dma on it. TNH spends a few days < 10dma, then rebounds. You yourself said it's in a strong group.
Probably not enough volume for a good short. I like 1M ADV. It's not experiencing the type of price action that WON preaches is a good short. In fact, it looks a lot better as a long right now -- check out the almost MACD crossover.
Read the WON shorting book. Also Weinstein's Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets. Could TNH bail Monday? Sure it could. But there are better candidates out there. Swing at good pitches. If they're down in the dirt, let 'em go by.
Dave Rubin <daverubin@???> wrote:
I almost shorted TNH when it went above 160 a couple weeks ago. Kicked myself for not doing it.
Now its rallied back to 140 on decent volume (but lower each day) and theres a big gap to 123.
The fertilizer group has been relatively strong but I think theyll break too if the market correction continues. TNH hasnt even tested its 200 day. Its stubborn.
Any opinions? Too risky?
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